PDFFree research
Research reports
Research on cryptocurrency markets, macroeconomic trends, and technical analysis, with the numbers behind the view. Free to download.
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The Triple Squeeze (September 2026)
Oil is climbing, the Fed has resumed hiking and the dollar is firming, and together they have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to about 5.29 percent, its highest level since 2007, and the 30-year to about 5.64 percent, its highest since 2002. The memo argues the sequencing matters more than the direction of any one market: in the recent rate-shock episodes examined, gold tended to bottom first and the long end to top next, with growth or financial stress sometimes emerging around or after the yield top. With the Fed still hiking, the dollar near 101.35 and the S&P 500 near its highs while small caps roll over, 2026 rhymes more with late 2018 than with 2022. The base case is that any correction in that window would be a growth scare inside an intact cycle. Bitcoin has already beaten the August expectations, breaking above its May high to about $83,000, which shifts the burden of proof to the bears and makes it the main piece of evidence against the 2018 analogue.
The Balance of Risks (August 2026)
Equities have pushed to new all-time highs while liquidity stays restrictive and the Federal Reserve holds with a hawkish tilt, and the memo argues that combination reads as a late-cycle expansion rather than one that is ending. The base case into the fourth quarter is a midterm correction that resolves into recovery rather than a recessionary top, because the recession cluster has not formed: year-over-year payrolls remain positive near 0.2 percent, unemployment is contained at 4.1 percent, initial claims sit near 209,000, and the macro recession composite reads 0.024, near the floor of its range. That same correction window is where Bitcoin has historically carved its cycle low and where gold has often bottomed in midterm years, which keeps Bitcoin on bottom-watch near $63,000 rather than at a confirmed low. The principal risk is energy re-accelerating inflation and forcing the Fed to hike into a labor market whose hiring momentum has already stalled, and the view is carried as a distribution rather than a single path: roughly 65 percent late-cycle base case, 20 percent deeper policy-error correction, and 15 percent recessionary transition.
Bitcoin Cycle Memo - July 2026
Bitcoin has arrived at the level long flagged as its "date with destiny," breaking beneath the 200-week SMA at an early-summer low near $57,000 and reclaiming it on the bounce to roughly $65,300, still about 48% below the October 2025 top. But the memo argues the reclaim settles less than it appears to: the same break-and-reclaim sequence preceded the 2022 low, the on-chain reset remains incomplete, and the 2019 analog has now outlasted its timing window without the capitulation that ended it. That points to a reset completed through time rather than through a comparable flush, with the midterm calendar, cycle duration, and a Fed holding restriction into cooling data all pointing toward a fourth-quarter bottoming window. The recommended posture is patience over aggressive deployment, with the framework now in bottom-watch mode.
Asymmetric Tail Curvature in Bitcoin Price Quantiles
This report develops an asymmetric quantile framework for Bitcoin's long-run price distribution and uses it to place a familiar observation, diminishing returns across cycles, on a formal statistical footing. After documenting that the dominant power-law and stock-to-flow models have carried systematic optimistic bias out of sample, the paper asks whether allowing the upper and lower tails of the price distribution to curve differently better describes Bitcoin's history. It finds a statistically significant asymmetry: the upper tail compresses meaningfully across cycles while structural support remains close to a straight-line power law. The estimate is a full-sample distributional summary across four halving cycles, intended as a characterization of how Bitcoin's conditional price distribution has evolved, not a forecast, a price floor, or a measure of portfolio loss risk.
Macro Risk Memo (May 2026)
The U.S. economy still shows late-cycle resilience, labor markets are cooling gradually rather than breaking, and elevated asset prices continue to support activity. But the memo argues a more difficult phase is forming as inflation re-emerges through energy and producer prices while markets reprice toward higher rates rather than cuts. This sets up a potential late business cycle "checkmate" for the Federal Reserve, in which supply-driven inflation and softening employment begin pressuring both sides of its mandate at once. The recommended posture is defensive positioning with tactical deployment into periods of weakness, since the cycle is more likely to end through a gradual, drawn-out process than an imminent recession.
Crypto Risk Memo (Q2 2026)
Bitcoin has dropped roughly 50% from its late-2025 peak of ~$126k to the mid-$70k range, the memo argues this is only a partial reset of a late-cycle environment defined by restrictive liquidity, weak participation, and narrow market breadth. The recommended posture is capital preservation with selective tactical deployment, since the adjustment is more likely to continue through prolonged consolidation ("time-based capitulation") than a single decisive move lower.
How Risk Cascades Through Markets (March 2026)
The macro environment reflects a late-stage business cycle with tightening liquidity and rising financial fragility. Speculative excess in crypto has been unwinding for several years as retail participation declined and altcoins underperformed Bitcoin. Recently, risk has started spreading to traditional markets, with equities weakening significantly relative to gold. Additional pressures, such as a stronger dollar and higher oil prices, may further tighten financial conditions. However, the labor market has not yet shown the sharp deterioration that usually signals the start of a recessionary feedback loop.
Macro Risk Memo February 2026
The macro environment in early 2026 reflects restrictive digestion rather than early-cycle expansion. Quantitative tightening concluded in December 2025, yet liquidity conditions remain constrained by elevated real yields, a policy rate that remains above market-implied neutral, and the potential for renewed dollar strength. Markets can rally on the belief that tightening is over, but sustained risk expansion typically requires a meaningful easing impulse. At present, the slope of liquidity has flattened, yet the conditions that historically support broad speculative leadership are not clearly in place
Crypto Macro Risk Memo - Q1 2026
Bitcoin appears to have completed its 2023–2025 market cycle and entered a late-cycle digestion phase similar to mid-2019. Liquidity, participation, and on-chain dynamics suggest that rallies are more likely to be tactical than the start of a new sustained bull market.
Ethereum Letters (2020)
Ethereum Letters was written in early 2020, when Ethereum’s market role, economic design, and long-term relevance were still highly uncertain. Ethereum had a shorter trading history than Bitcoin, greater narrative dispersion, and significantly higher volatility. The objective of this report was not to make strong directional claims, but to examine whether a risk-aware, macro-style framework could be applied to an asset with more complex and changing drivers.
Bitcoin Letters (2020)
This report was written in early 2020, during a period when Bitcoin’s price action was still largely driven by retail and before Bitcoin began to be evaluated seriously within institutional portfolio frameworks. Rather than attempting to forecast short-term price action, this report focused on understanding Bitcoin from a risk-management perspective, emphasizing diminishing returns, volatility compression, and changes in market structure across different phases of the market.
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