Research Reports

The macro environment in early 2026 reflects restrictive digestion rather than early-cycle expansion. Quantitative tightening concluded in December 2025, yet liquidity conditions remain constrained by elevated real yields, a policy rate that remains above market-implied neutral, and the potential for renewed dollar strength. Markets can rally on the belief that tightening is over, but sustained risk expansion typically requires a meaningful easing impulse. At present, the slope of liquidity has flattened, yet the conditions that historically support broad speculative leadership are not clearly in place

Bitcoin appears to have completed its 2023–2025 market cycle and entered a late-cycle digestion phase similar to mid-2019. Liquidity, participation, and on-chain dynamics suggest that rallies are more likely to be tactical than the start of a new sustained bull market.

This report was written in early 2020, during a period when Bitcoin’s price action was still largely driven by retail and before Bitcoin began to be evaluated seriously within institutional portfolio frameworks. Rather than attempting to forecast short-term price action, this report focused on understanding Bitcoin from a risk-management perspective, emphasizing diminishing returns, volatility compression, and changes in market structure across different phases of the market.

Ethereum Letters was written in early 2020, when Ethereum’s market role, economic design, and long-term relevance were still highly uncertain. Ethereum had a shorter trading history than Bitcoin, greater narrative dispersion, and significantly higher volatility. The objective of this report was not to make strong directional claims, but to examine whether a risk-aware, macro-style framework could be applied to an asset with more complex and changing drivers.